Brexit deal vote scrapped; Huawei CFO arrested; Macron surrenders to violent protests

11 December 2018

Brexit deal vote scrapped; Huawei CFO arrested; Macron surrenders to violent protests

The Weekly Note is brought to you by the ALPHA : r² discretionary service team.

Market news

Political turmoil in the UK saw sterling fall to a 20-month low yesterday, dipping below $1.26 after Prime Minister Theresa May scrapped a parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal at the eleventh hour. The government admitted that it would have almost certainly been defeated in the vote, had it taken place today, due to concerns over the existing Irish backstop arrangement. May instead is heading to Brussels to plead for better terms, but the European Union have so far explained that there is no room for negotiation. Not for the first time in May’s tenure, a UK leadership contest seems likely.

Last week, the FTSE 100 had already sunk to its lowest level in two years after domestic issues were compounded by a further deterioration of Sino-American tensions. Global markets fell sharply after the arrest of the finance chief of a major Chinese tech firm, Huawei. The arrest was made in Canada but requested by America and sent major equity indices down more than 2% on Thursday.

The S&P 500 dropped to an eight-month low yesterday but then recovered, while China’s markets finished strongly overnight. Stocks in Tokyo, however, have hit an eighteen-month low. European bourses are experiencing some relief today, despite Brexit, the Italian budget stand-off and unrest in France, where President Macron was forced to give minimum wage rises and tax concessions in response to weeks of violent protests.

Some positive news for British people otherwise consumed by Brexit came in the form of wage growth. Basic pay and total pay (including bonuses) both rose by 3.3% per year in the three months to October, marking the strongest nominal rate of wage growth since the financial crisis. The economy, however, stalled during the same period. GDP growth in the three months slowed to 0.4%, amid a slowdown in manufacturing and construction.

Finally, the Indian rupee has slumped following the resignation of the country’s central bank governor, Urjit Patel. There have been reports of poor relations between the Reserve Bank of India and the government, linked to concerns over the government’s interference.


Economic data*

Share Closing Values at 10/12/18 Year high Year low
FTSE 100 7,062 7,904 6,674
FTSEurofirst 1,339 1,588 1,337
DAX 10,622 13,597 10,586
DJ Industrial Average 24,423 26,952 23,345
S&P 500 2,638 2,931 2,581
NASDAQ 7,021 8,133 6,631
Hang Seng 25,772 33,484 24,541


UK Gifts % Yield Price
10 Year 1.2 104.0
2 Year 0.7 102.1
5 Year 0.8 99.7
30 Year 1.7 95.


FOREX versus US Dollar Last % Change**
British Pound 1.27 0.44
Euro 1.14 0.23
Japanese Yen 113.65 -0.24
Canadian Dollar 1.32 0.16


Commodities Price (USD) Change** % Change**
Brent Crude Oil 59.97 -0.07 -0.12
Light Crude 51 -0.08 -0.16
Gold LBMA 1,244.51 3.59 0.29
* Source: Thomson Reuters
** From previous day close


Stock focus

Interserve saw its shares open nearly 75% down yesterday morning after it warned investors that an emergency rescue plan would inflict significant pain. Plans to deleverage by converting a significant portion of debt into new shares “could result in material dilution for current Interserve shareholders”. One of Britain’s leading outsourcing companies, Interserve is now valued at just £18m.

WPP has revealed its long-awaited plan to reboot the advertising company under new chief executive Mark Read. It plans to cut overhead costs by £275m a year, whilst £300m needs to be spent on simplifying the structure. WPP has maintained its dividend, however, helping shares up over 6% this morning.

Following strong performance from its US business, Ashtead has raised its forecast for its full-year results. Interim figures revealed that the equipment rental company’s profits rose by 25% in the six months to November, alongside a 19% increase in revenue.

An intensifying battle between Domino’s Pizza Group and its franchises has seen its share price fall around 4% this week. 11 of the firm’s 70 UK franchises have demanded a bigger slice of the company’s profits, saying they need more support in the face of rising costs. They have threatened to stop opening more stores in protest.

Carpetright has revealed deepening losses in the first half of its year, with a 12.7% drop in like-for-like sales contributing to an £11.7m pre-tax loss. The troubled retailer blamed a combination of weaker demand and exceptional costs relating to store closures and restructuring.

Associated British Foods said last week that it was experiencing a slow start to the festive season, citing ‘challenging’ November sales. Concerning data for ABF, which owns Primark, one of the high-street’s best performers in recent years, is a potential worry for the rest of the UK’s retailers.

DS Smith released positive first half figures last week, saying it was “bonkers busy” providing packaging for parcels in the run-up to Christmas. Its pre-tax profits rose by 27% in the six months to November, partly due to its ability to pass rising costs onto its customers. The company also revealed it was looking to sell its plastics division as part of an ongoing sustainability drive.


Date Category Country Event Reuters poll Prior estimate
11/12/18 Labour Market United Kingdom UK pay growth seen holding at 10-year high - ONS reports labour data - Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) 3.20% 3.20%
11/12/18 Surveys & Cyclical Germany German investor morale - ZEW Current Conditions 55.8 58.2
11/12/18 Prices United States United States-PPI demand - PPI Final Demand YY 2.50% 2.90%
11/12/18 Prices Japan Japan-Corporate goods price - Corp Goods Price YY 2.40% 2.90%
12/12/18 Industry Sector Eurozone Euro Zone-Industrial production - Industrial Production YY 0.70% 0.90%
12/12/18 Prices United States United States-CPI - CPI YY, NSA 2.20% 2.50%
13/12/18 Prices Germany Germany-Inflation Final - CPI Final YY 2.3 2.5
13/12/18 Labour Market United States United States-Jobless - Initial Jobless Claims 225k 231k
13/12/18 Consumer Sector China (Mainland) China (Mainland)-Activity indicators - Retail Sales YY 8.80% 8.60%
14/12/18 Surveys & Cyclical France France-PMI Flash - Markit Comp Flash PMI 54 54
14//12/18 Industry Sector United States United States-Industrial production - Manuf Output MM 0.30% 0.30%


Source: Thomson Reuters

Walker Crips
Old Change House
128 Queen Victoria Street
London EC4V 4BJ

020 3100 8000
[email protected]


Important information

This publication is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this document constitutes advice to undertake a
transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips.

Walker Crips Investment Management is a trading name of Walker Crips Stockbrokers Limited which is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered office: Old Change House, 128 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4BJ. Registered in England number 4774117.

Brexit deal vote scrapped; Huawei CFO arrested; Macron surrenders to violent protests

Important note

No news or research content is a recommendation to deal. It is important to remember that the value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you could get back less than you invest. If you have any doubts about the suitability of any investment for your circumstances, you should contact your financial advisor.

Investors should be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and that the price of shares and other investments, may fall as well as rise and the amount realised may be less than the original sum invested.

Walker Crips Group plc (Old Change House, 128 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4BJ), registered in England, registered number 1432059, incorporates the following companies which are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority: Walker Crips Investment Management Limited registered in England number 4774117 member of the London Stock Exchange, Walker Crips Wealth Management Limited registered in England number 3790291, Ebor Trustees Limited registered in England number 3514268, Barker Poland Asset Management LLP registered in England and Wales number OC341149.