The Weekly Note is brought to you by the ALPHA: r² discretionary service team.
European markets are mixed so far this morning, following the Easter bank holiday. The FTSE All-Share is up about a quarter of a percent this morning, while most major indices on the continent are trading lower. Last week, which was generally positive for global risk appetite, European Central Bank officials expressed doubts over the bloc’s ability to rebound economically in the second half of the year.
Before Easter, investor bullishness had been boosted by evidence that China’s stimulus was working. It was revealed that Chinese GDP growth was ahead of expectations in the first quarter, holding steady at an annualised 6.4%.
Stocks have also been supported recently by a surprisingly strong start to the first quarter US earnings season. Combined forces lifted the S&P 500 near its all-time high last week, before pulling back slightly. US manufacturing data arrived below economists’ expectations, failing to show a rebound from the relatively weak winter months. March’s Purchasing Managers’ Index read 52.4, the same as February’s.
In the UK, Consumer Price Index growth in March was 1.9% compared to the same time last year. It means that the average inflation rate for the first quarter was the lowest of any quarter since 2016, which is a boost for disposable household income given that wage growth is at 3.5%. Meanwhile, Brexit is expected to return to the spotlight this week as cross-party talks resume after the Easter break.
Oil prices have been boosted by Donald Trump’s announcement that Iranian sanctions waivers would end by May, meaning there will be no more exemptions for countries still buying oil from Iran. This, combined with other geopolitical uncertainty in oil-producing nations and OPEC’s supply cuts, has driven oil prices to 2019 highs.
Subscribe today and email [email protected] to register your interest, and receive the full Weekly Note in your inbox every Tuesday.
Old Change House
128 Queen Victoria Street
London EC4V 4BJ
020 3100 8000
This publication is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this document constitutes advice to undertake a
transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips.
Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Registered office: Old Change House, 128 Queen Victoria Street, London, EC4V 4BJ. Registered in England number 4774117.
No news or research content is a recommendation to deal. It is important to remember that the value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you could get back less than you invest. If you have any doubts about the suitability of any investment for your circumstances, you should contact your financial advisor.
Investors should be aware that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and that the price of shares and other investments, may fall as well as rise and the amount realised may be less than the original sum invested.
Walker Crips Group plc (Old Change House, 128 Queen Victoria Street, London EC4V 4BJ), registered in England, registered number 1432059, incorporates the following companies which are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority: Walker Crips Investment Management Limited registered in England number 4774117 member of the London Stock Exchange, Walker Crips Wealth Management Limited registered in England number 3790291, Ebor Trustees Limited registered in England number 3514268, Barker Poland Asset Management LLP registered in England and Wales number OC341149.